Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) are often described as missiles with a reach of over 3,000 miles. To date less than ten nations are believed to be members of the “elite” club with an ICBM capability. The significance of this type of missile is its primary purpose, the delivery of nuclear warheads. Given the long distances involved, along with other variables that need to be taken into account, creating an accurate ICBM is difficult. As a result, only a destructive payload makes the development of this type of missile worthwhile. That is why it’s often assumed that nations with an ICBM capability also have the ability to develop nuclear warheads for them.
But why is it more dangerous for certain nations to possess this type of missile than others? After all, of all the nations assumed to possess ICBM’s (US, Russia, China, France, UK, India, Israel, and North Korea) none has ever used them in a conflict. Due to the certainty of a Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD), there should be little incentive to utilize nuclear tipped ICBM’s in a conflict.
The Islamic Republic of Iran (a regime believed to be developing ICBM’s) is an exception to this rule. Tehran continues to test various classes of ballistic missiles in violation of UN Resolution 2231. On November 12, 2011, Hassan Tehrani Moghaddam, the man the Iranian regime describes as the father of its missile program, was killed by an explosion at the Malard missile research facility under mysterious circumstances. Immediately after the explosion, Mohammad Moghaddam (his brother and a member of the IRGC) told Iranian state media “the project was in the final testing phase, it was related to an ICBM.”
So why is Iran different? Because the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) is not a classic nation state. It is a messianic theocracy, and its supreme leader, is tasked with facilitating the return of the hidden Shia Messiah, the Imam Mehdi. Based on this reality, the logic of deterrence theory (MAD) does not apply. The primary foreign policy objectives of the messianic IRI regime include the following:
Creating a united Ummah (global Muslim community) with Islamic Iran as its leader– The founders of IRI believed that the Iranian revolution was the commencement of a new global order, one in which Islamic Iran, under the leadership of the hidden 12thImam (Imam Mehdi), will one day lead the global Muslim community. For this reason, the leaders of IRI have always been opposed to the concept of Iranian nationalism. Whereas nationalism deters leaders from taking actions that threaten the existence of their national territory, messianic Shiism does not abide by similar constraints.
“Ayatollah Motahari, one of the early founding theorists of IRI and a trusted advisor to Ayatollah Khomeini (father of the Iranian revolution), had explained that nationalism is antithetical to Islam since Islam is a colorblind faith open to all humanity. Accordingly, Islamic beliefs are universal truths not bound by borders or based on race and nationality. The intent of the Iranian revolution was to unite Muslims under the flag of Islam, and concepts such as nationalism are in direct opposition to Islam.[1]
Export of the Iranian revolution abroad– One of the enduring objectives of every political faction within IRI is the export of Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution. The stated goal is to inspire Muslim majority countries around the world to overthrow their own “repressive” regimes with Iranian assistance. A corollary to this objective, seldom stated officially, is the establishment of governments amenable to the influence of Tehran.
- Ayatollah Khomeini, the father of IRI, declared the following in 1979, “we must try to export our revolution because the superpowers, along with the other great powers, are trying to destroy us. If we are constrained to one region, then we will be defeated eventually.”[2]
- According to several scholars of geopolitics from Tarbiat Modares University in Tehran (One of the leading graduate schools in Iran), “The export of the Islamic Revolution has been and continues to be one of the founding geopolitical strategies of IRI.”[3]
Enmity towards the U.S.-Numerous commentators have attributed the hostile rhetoric and actions of IRI vis-à-vis the US to American involvement in the 1953 coup against Iranian Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh as well as American support for the Shah of Iran (1941-1979). This line of reasoning makes sense for most Western trained scholars who analyze the world through the prism of post-enlightenment thinking where cause and effect must be related to one another and where religious doctrine has no basis for national policy formulation. This type of analysis leads to difficulty in understanding a regime that does not represent a Westphalian modeled nation state. To understand why IRI has considered the US its enemy, and will continue to do so in the future, one must listen to those formulating policy inside Iran,
“The Shia philosophy of protest against injustice has colored the global perspective of Iranians. Therefore, anything that the Iranian views as opposed to this struggle against injustice is deemed to be evil and must be eliminated. The Iranian revolution defined evil and oppression as represented by the US (the Great Satan) and the Shah as a traitor. Therefore, as a first step the revolution removed the government that was dependent on the US, and as a follow up step, must continue to oppose the US itself. This is the reason that Iran is at the forefront of the struggle against the US on the global stage.”[4]
Enmity towards Israel– Enmity toward Israel is among the core objectives of IRI. Regime leaders claim that Israel has usurped the land of Muslims (i.e. Palestinians) and must therefore be recognized as an oppressive regime. The IRI, as the self-declared leader of the Muslim world, sees it as a duty to lead the struggle against Israel. For the decision makers in Tehran, Israelis are settlers from Europe whose presence in the Middle East can never be justified. Therefore, the leaders of IRI consider the state of Israel to be a cancer that must be removed from the geopolitical landscape. Alef.ir, a conservative website associated with Ahmad Tavakoli (member of the Expediency Council), published an article by Alireza Forghani in 2012 titled: Islamic jurisprudential necessity for the destruction Israel. The article starts with a quote from the late Ayatollah Khomeini, the father of the Iranian revolution.
“Today Jerusalem is in the hands of Israel, the cancer of the Middle East. Today Israel uses all the instruments of the devil to create divisions. It is the obligation of every Muslim to arm him/her self against Israel. The tyrannical government of Israel presents a grave danger for Islam and for Muslim countries and it is incumbent upon all Muslims to eliminate this source of corruption by any means necessary. All our problems are born from Israel, and Israel is born from the US.” [5]
CONCLUSIONS:
The totality of evidence suggests that IRI is a regime established to champion a cause. This cause is the return of the 12th Shia Imam (Imam Mehdi) whose arrival is expected to bring a new world order led by Shia Iran. The coming of Imam Mehdi is prophesied to cause the destruction of what Iranian leaders describe as “the forces of evil,” with the US and Israel at the top of that list. For these reasons, maximum pressure must be applied by the US and its allies to ensure that the messianic regime in Tehran is never able to develop nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them around the globe.
[1]Research Journal on Islamic Revolution Vol 2, No 5; The Islamic Revolution and a New Geopolitical Strategy for Iran; Winter 2013 (www.sid.ir/Fa/Journal/JournalListpaper.aspx?ID=44313)
[5]Alef; Islamic Jurisprudential Necessity for the Destruction of Israelby Alireza Forghani; 4 February 2012 (http://old.alef.ir/vdcepw8zwjh8ewi.b9bj.html?142262)