The demise of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-Qods Force (IRGC-QF) Commander, Qassem Soleimani, has prompted numerous Iran pundits and anti-Trump politicians to declare that the sky is falling. According to the uninformed echo chamber, President Donald Trump’s decision to eliminate Iran’s terrorist mastermind increases the likelihood of Iranian aggression against the United States. By constantly focusing on Washington’s actions, the Iran pundits and anti-Trump politicians demonstrate a complete lack of understanding of the Iranian regime. The scaremongers assume Tehran’s foreign policy objectives are determined by decisions made in Washington. They also assume that appeasement towards Iran will alter its behavior.
In reality, no matter what Washington does, Tehran will continue to define itself in opposition to the United States on the global stage. From the outset, the Islamic Republic of Iran declared a foreign policy based on Shia Islamic objectives. One of these objectives is the battle against injustice. The leaders of Islamic Iran have declared their regime an independent pole of influence on the global stage. In this narrative, Islamic Iran views itself as the leader of the just, while the United States is defined as the vanguard of the unjust. In this battle, Islamic Iran can justify any action it takes on behalf of the just. Such action often includes support for groups the international community has defined as terrorist organizations. The list of Iran’s proxies is by no means limited to Hezbollah, Hamas, or the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). However, Iranian policymakers portray their support for such groups as essential to their struggle for justice to facilitate the return of Imam Mehdi (the Shia messiah). The Research Journal on Islamic Revolution, published in Iran, frames the debate this way.
Another one of Islamic Iran’s objectives is to remain ambiguous about its true intentions. For instance, Iran always tasks proxies to carry out attacks against the United States. From the marine barracks bombing in Lebanon (1983) to the Khobar Towers bombing in Saudi Arabia (1996), Islamic Iran is never directly involved. According to Iranian strategic theorists, Tehran must mislead adversaries about its true intentions and capabilities so they can never be sure how to counter the Iranian regime. Here again, Islamic Iran relies on lessons learned from its Shia Islamic past to shape its defense policies.
The export of Iran’s Shia Islamic revolution is also an objective for the regime in Tehran. It is the foundation of Tehran’s geopolitical strategy and will continue to remain so. Given Ayatollah Khomeini’s particular interest in this objective, he quickly transformed this goal from theory into reality beginning in Iraq. Shia Iraqis, especially those in the cities of Najaf and Karbala, were encouraged to protest against their Sunni government back in 1979. Other protests led by Ayatollah Mohammad Bagher Sadr took place in Baghdad and Diyala Province. These activities were followed up by the provocation of Shia in the rest of the Middle East. Iranian revolutionaries encouraged Shia residents of Saudi Arabian cities such as Qatif, to protest against their government. In Bahrain, Shia citizens have been encouraged to overthrow the ruling Sunni Al Khalifa Monarchysince 1979.
Given these objectives, any nation that stands in the way of exporting the Iranian Revolution is considered an enemy of Tehran. The United States, as a guarantor of regional stability, and as an ally of the Gulf Arab States, has thwarted Tehran’s ambition to export its revolution to the Arab side of the Persian Gulf. As a result, Tehran is hostile to the US and will continue to remain so regardless of any efforts towards rapprochement by Washington. Ayatollah Khomeini, the father of Islamic Iran, declared in 1979 “we must export our revolution because the superpowers, along with the other great powers, are trying to destroy us. If we are contained to one region, we’ll be defeated eventually.
Interestingly, those who criticize President Trump for establishing deterrence against Islamic Iran forget that a Shia Islamic filter determines both Tehran’s friends and its enemies. This filter is another reason why the United States, with a foreign policy that promotes liberal democracy, is identified as an enemy of Islamic Iran. Accordingly, the more a nation’s values stand in opposition to Shia ideology, the greater threat that nation poses to Tehran. For example, Major General Hossein Salami, Commander of the IRGC, has declared that America is Shia Iran’s greatest enemy because Washington seeks to degrade Iran’s Islamic values. Salami argues that the US seeks to influence Iranian hearts and minds by corrupting Shia beliefs.
The American public must understand that Tehran’s foreign policy decisions are a product of Shia Islamic objectives. The result is an Iranian foreign policy emphasizing animosity towards the US as the representative of injustice. Tehran also prioritizes a security posture based on ambiguity and actions aimed at deceiving Washington. The export of the Islamic Revolution is another priority of Iran’s leaders, ensuring long-term enmity towards Washington. Finally, Islamic Iran chooses its friends and enemies by evaluating their actions through a Shia Islamic filter. It should be obvious that no amount of appeasement, or “moderation” according to the Iran pundits and anti-Trump politicians, will ever placate Tehran’s eternal opposition to the United States. President Trump, and all future US administrations, would be wise to do whatever is necessary to establish a credible deterrence against the Shia clerics who define Tehran’s foreign policy.